The newly published “Requiem for the Television: Tablets, OTT, Faster Broadband to make Today's TV
Unrecognizable” report is an observation
and forecast of the TV manufacturing market between 2014 and 2019.
It gauges the level of market decline and points to those
will lead it, whilst exploring the existing clues – rising tablet sales,
expanding OTT services and faster broadband speeds. The work also puts down
some rough numbers to plot the order of magnitude of industry changes.
The report acts as a guide to those TV market players who
may be intent on beefing up on marketing expense when in fact it should be
R&D that needs the budget. Its aim is to divert readers from continual
investment in past successes, when it is in fact future technologies that
urgently beckon.
The findings in “Requiem for the Television” are
structured around some “soft forecast” targets for the next five years. These
include:
2013 US Pay TV operators introduce headless
gateway spec for tablet TV
2013 US broadcasters agree to give spectrum to
cellular
2014 Demand for larger and larger TV sets in the
US
2014 TV shipments fall under 200m a year
2015 Tablet shipments overtake PC sales including
laptops
2015 Telco Vectoring makes 4K OTT viable
2016 120 million WiFi Homespots promote OTT video
delivery
2016 Tablet piracy rampant, new cpu based DRMs
introduced
2017 eMBMS video delivery commonplace
2017 First run Movies go OTT
2018 TV shipments to 170 m
2018 Smart TV saturation, prices fall
2019 75% of TV viewed on tablets, PCs or phones
2019 Top end super tablets down to $250
Produced by Rethink Research in association with Rider
Research, this 40 page report also considers the last major change in TV
manufacturing. This was the rapid displacement of cathode ray tubes by flat
screens from 2000 until today, also coinciding with the arrival of HD. Now we
have to look forward to the disruption created by the arrival of 4K, and the
market effect of HEVC, as well as the emergence of OTT and TV Everywhere
services from Pay TV operators aware of new broadband capabilities.
“Requiem for the Television” also brings conclusions
about the demise of over-the-air broadcasting and the rise of social networks,
as well as the emergence of new UIs.
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As studies of previous events in technology-driven
industries have shown, major contractions appear usually at a time when
disruptive innovations occur. A trigger of disruptive innovation is when
something comes along that is half as good, but costs a tenth of the price. The
tablet is just such a case in point. Today, we are increasingly witnessing
tablets being used for television viewing.
At these points in technology history, there are
structural changes in the sector eco-system and new market leaders emerge. The
old rules no longer apply and some leaders fall by the wayside. Famous brand
names disappear or at least go into reverse, while new names flourish.
The report shows that the old methods, of plotting
existing dots to LCD TV manufacturer supplier data and extending the lines, no
longer work. It describes the future market shape and points to those who will
lead it.
The forecasts, observations and ideas in “Requiem for the
Television” are essential reading for anyone that wants to know the future of
the TV market in the next five to six years and who want to position themselves
with the right product lines and the right investments.
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We have written this report for Consumer Electronics
manufacturers, Pay TV Operators, Broadcasters, all types of Network Operators,
Telcos, Cablecos, Satellite and IPTV operators, and equipment and Software
Suppliers to these companies, including Encoder Manufacturers, DRM specialists,
Handset Makers and Chip Designers. The report is targeted at management levels
for business case analysis and forecasting.
The pricing for the “Requiem for the Television: Tablets,
OTT, Faster Broadband to make Today's TV Unrecognizable” report is as follows:
Number of readers
Single reader
license
$895
License for 2-3 readers
$1,390
License for 4-5 readers
$1,565
License for 6-10 readers
$2,400
License for 11-25 readers
$3,750
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Free extracts from the report are available here.
If you would like to order the report, please download the orderform here.
Table of Contents for
The “Requiem for the
Television: Tablets, OTT, Faster Broadband to make Today's TV Unrecognizable”
The Rethink Difference—and Method 4
TV Device Markets—The new Normal 6
The Collapse of the TV Industry—Timeline
8
Executive Summary
11
The end of the line for LCD TVs 15
Samsung driving OLED 15
Why OLED?
16
OLED great match for “full HD” 18
LCD decline gathers pace
21
The major disruption of Chromecast
24
The minor disruption of Smart TVs
25
Plasma’s decline and fall 27
Composite panels will take over from monolithic screens
28
What about 3D? 29
3D revolution will only come with holographic
30
Viewing switches to tablets
33
Tablets swing to OLED 35
All screens will converge anyway
36
The WiFi dimension
39
What next after OLED? 41
Second screen can prop big telly sales 43
Conclusion
45
