Results for week just gone: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10qIEqo9DICxuHtDqohC7k6MMlpng-LpQLwtlWArdxkw/edit?usp=sharing
Prediction for coming week:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O5xs_v3e5B9TYgOUxmk4beD84PnAvHA1p9ULROupr2E/edit?usp=sharing
I didn't factor in the strong US dollar for the week just gone. US 10 Year Treasury bond yields rose to 5.273% causing an inflow of money into the US and a strengthened US dollar - the most remarkable change was the Dollar basket DXY rising to $1.0160.
I am interested in US employment numbers. The Non-Farm Payroll figures for September showed a decline in the number of job starts. There were also some retrospective downward re-ratings of August and July figures by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Elsewhere, figures from bodies like ADP show expanding employment. How can this be? Yes, the US economy seems to be fully charged but surely the influence of AI should now be affecting employment numbers?
| Market predictions (currencies and commodities) Saturday 3rd October 2026 | |||||||||
| Category | Price ending 26 Sep 2026 | Predicted price on 3 Oct 2026 | View | Reason / comments | Right? Y/N | Actual price ending on 3 Oct 2026 | Comments / Post mortem | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.1391 | 1.1324 | Bearish | Higher Ger inflation. Higher US NFP | Yes | 1.1250 | A lot lower. First Euro below 1.13 since 03/25 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.3245 | 1.325 | Bullish | A hard week. Oversold GBP. Unaffected NFP | No | 1.3240 | High bonds, strong $. NFP brought it down | ||
| USD/CHF | 0.8285 | 0.8339 | Bullish | Swiss Fed no rate change. Welcoming carry | Yes | 0.8286 | Expected more. Going to plan till NFP sell off | ||
| USD/JPY | 157.23 | 156.81 | Bearish | Poss BoJ intervention. Strong Tankan data | No | 157.87 | Slight gain.Disunited BoJ. Strong $ still | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.7025 | 0.6985 | Bearish | higher Aus infl. lukewarm Chi PMI | Yes | 0.6958 | Steeper decline. The USD abounds | ||
| NZD/USD | 0.5664 | 0.5625 | Bearish | reaching bottom of trading range. No news | Yes | 0.5616 | In general, still gentle decline | ||
| US Dollar DXY | 1.0073 | 1.0024 | Bearish | Overbought - slight decline | No | 1.0160 | Completely wrong. Strong US Treasuries | ||
| Spot Gold | 4,285 | 4,216 | Bearish | Downward trend cont. Unaffected by USD | Yes | 4,143 | Lower than expected. USD inflows. | ||
| Copper | 14,630 | 14,896 | Bullish | AI boom continues. Hypers will pay any price | No | 14,251 | Strong $ bad. Chinese hols no demand | ||
| Soybeans | 1,329 | 1,339 | Bullish | Poor US crop harvest. Supply. No top 1340 | No | 1,291 | Decline - better Chicago harvest | ||
| Corn | 533 | 541 | Bullish | 2.49 ratio to soybean. Supply probs. Slight hgh | No | 502 | Decline - good harvest? News due | ||
| WTI Oil | 92.32 | 90.34 | Bearish | Depends on Straits peace deal. Seems quiet. | Yes | 90.50 | Prices fell. Quiet week. Dojis. | ||
| Brent Oil | 98.73 | 96.41 | Bearish | Depends on Straits peace deal. Seems quiet. | No | 102.34 | Going to plan till last minute upward rally | ||
| US Tec/Nasdaq | 30,638 | 30,718 | Bullish | Stellar AI from semicons this week | Yes | 30,723 | Micron 2 year full order book. More AI | ||
| Wall St/Dow | 51,830 | 51,519 | Bearish | Downward trend continues | Yes | 51,133 | K-shaped economy. Old world declines | ||
| FTSE 100 | 10,743 | 10,651 | Bearish | Downward trend continues | Yes | 10,494 | Bond worries | ||
| Germany DAX | 25,551 | 25,162 | Bearish | High inflation, poor growth. Decline. | Yes | 25,310 | Bond worries. Eurozone bond worries | ||
| TOTAL | |||||||||
| YESes | 10 | ||||||||
Noes
|
7 | ||||||||
